Noel Perry
Aug 29
A Word to the Wise
A word to the wise when reading the current business media. Like everyone, people who talk and write in the business media suffer from bipolar disease. When things are good, they can see nothing but blue skies. When things are bad they can see nothing but storm clounds. Right now things are bad so the media is depressed and can see little or no chance of recovery. Don’t get me wrong. There are some worrisome signs, but not enough to declare with no qualifications that little or no growth is here to stay. That would be a historically unprecedented development; something that takes more than two quarters of data to substantiate.
Remember Oil Prices?
To get some perspective consider what people were saying about oil prices in March, just five months ago. Based on three months of upward moving data they concluded that gasoline would be above $5 a gallon by year’s end. They ignored powerful supply and demand fundamentals that suggested a drop in oil prices once the shock from the “Arab Spring” wore off. You know what happened.
Wrong Again – What to Do?
So – reporters and politicians and economists are wrong again – what to do? The answer is simple, but it takes a little work. It requires you to become your own economist. 1- Read the press broadly, looking at a collection of data. Don’t assume a new trend until most of the indicators turn. 2- Wait a while before declaring a new trend. Use a rule of three. The data has to line up for three reporting periods to reliably produce a trend. 3- Look for commentators who same something different. After all, what you really want to know is when you have to change your strategy. That comes from unexpected outcomes in the economy. 4- Make your normal financial and operating plans from a known base case forecast, just like the ones you see on this web site. 5- Pick at least one upside and one downside market scenario and, using your basecase as a reference, consider what would happen if your alternate scenario were to come true. Make a rough guess as to the financial and operating implications and isolate those factors that would really change things for you. Finally, list the three or four things you would have to do to adapt to that event and pick the most likely economic data that would signal that your case is coming true. Yea, that all takes time – but it takes a hell of a lot less time than scrambling around trying to adapt after the fact.
Recent Indicators
Trucking Conditions Index
Trucking Conditions Index rises sharply
January 9, 2013
Conditions index dips after big improvement
December 14, 2012
Trucking Conditions Index moves higher in August
October 4, 2012
Trucking Conditions Index still under 5.0
August 31, 2012
Trucking Conditions Index drops
July 31, 2012
Truck Loadings Outlook
Truck loadings stronger in July, up 0.7%
August 29, 2012
Truck loadings grow in June
July 24, 2012
Truck loadings rise again in May
July 2, 2012
Truck loadings rebound in April
May 30, 2012
Truck loadings disappoint in March
April 25, 2012
Loadings By Segment
Bulk/dump loadings jump 1.3% in July
September 27, 2012
Tank loadings drop 0.2% in July
September 27, 2012
Flatbed loadings surge 1.9% in July
September 27, 2012
Refrigerated loadings rebound 0.6% in July
September 27, 2012
Dry van loadings continue growth in July
September 27, 2012
Loadings By Commodity
Automotive loadings fall 2.7% in July
September 27, 2012
Bulk aggregates loadings up 1.1% in July
September 27, 2012
Construction loadings improve in July
September 27, 2012
Chemical loadings better than expected, still down
September 27, 2012
Food loadings up 0.5% in July
September 27, 2012
Trucking Conditions Index
Trucking Conditions Index rises sharply
January 9, 2013
Conditions index dips after big improvement
December 14, 2012
Trucking Conditions Index moves higher in August
October 4, 2012
Trucking Conditions Index still under 5.0
August 31, 2012
Trucking Conditions Index drops
July 31, 2012
Truckload Rates Outlook
Truckload rates improved in June
September 27, 2012
Rates weakest since early 2010
August 15, 2012
TL rates staying soft in Q2
July 16, 2012
TL rates slowed during Q1
June 19, 2012
TL rates stronger to start 2012
April 12, 2012
Rates By Segment
Diesel price rises 2.4 cents to $3.89
May 20, 2013
Diesel price rises in DOE’s 1,000th week of data
May 13, 2013
Diesel price dips slightly to $3.845
May 6, 2013
Diesel price falls 3.6 cents to $3.851
April 30, 2013
Diesel price lowest since August
April 22, 2013
Truckload Costs Outlook
Truck costs slow but above inflation
August 16, 2012
Trucking cost inflation remains elevated
July 16, 2012
Cost pressures easing, will grow
June 19, 2012
Carrier cost growth set to exceed 5% in 2012
March 13, 2012
Carrier costs grow 10% in 2011
February 22, 2012
Diesel Outlook
Diesel prices increase faster than expected
August 23, 2012
Diesel price outlook moves lower
July 23, 2012
Diesel price outlook lower for 2012
June 21, 2012
Little change in diesel price outlook
May 23, 2012
EIA sees near-term stability in diesel prices
May 9, 2012
Weekly On-Highway Diesel Price
Diesel price rises 2.4 cents to $3.89
May 20, 2013
Diesel price rises in DOE’s 1,000th week of data
May 13, 2013
Diesel price dips slightly to $3.845
May 6, 2013
Diesel price falls 3.6 cents to $3.851
April 30, 2013
Diesel price lowest since August
April 22, 2013
Trucking Conditions Index
Trucking Conditions Index rises sharply
January 9, 2013
Conditions index dips after big improvement
December 14, 2012
Trucking Conditions Index moves higher in August
October 4, 2012
Trucking Conditions Index still under 5.0
August 31, 2012
Trucking Conditions Index drops
July 31, 2012
Truck Utilization Outlook
Truck utilization stays near 95% in July
August 29, 2012
Truck utilization unchanged in June
July 26, 2012
Truck utilization steady in May
July 2, 2012
Truck utilization rises again in April
May 30, 2012
Truck utilization rises to start 2012
April 30, 2012
New Truck Order Activity
Preliminary truck orders down in September
October 4, 2012
Preliminary truck orders rebound in August
September 13, 2012
July truck orders weakest since 2010
August 23, 2012
Preliminary truck orders suffer large drop in July
August 2, 2012
Truck orders fall in June
July 23, 2012
Trucking Failures
Fleet failures hit a record low in Q2
July 31, 2012
Trucking failures remain very low
May 9, 2012
Avondale: Fleet failures up slightly
February 2, 2012
Avondale reports record low fleet failures in 2011Q3
November 1, 2011
Avondale reports only 240 fleets failed in 2011Q2
July 29, 2011
Truck Transportation Payroll Employment
Trucking adds 11,700 jobs in April
May 3, 2013
Trucking sheds 6,900 jobs in March
April 5, 2013
Trucking adds 5,600 jobs in February
March 8, 2013
Trucking adds 5,000 jobs
February 1, 2013
Trucking adds 4,200 jobs in December
January 4, 2013
Trucking Conditions Index
Trucking Conditions Index rises sharply
January 9, 2013
Conditions index dips after big improvement
December 14, 2012
Trucking Conditions Index moves higher in August
October 4, 2012
Trucking Conditions Index still under 5.0
August 31, 2012
Trucking Conditions Index drops
July 31, 2012
GDP Outlook
GDP in Q2 was weak, risks are increasing
August 23, 2012
GDP forecast moves lower
July 23, 2012
GDP forecast risks are rising
June 19, 2012
GDP forecast relatively unchanged
May 18, 2012
U.S. economy is muddling along
April 20, 2012
Industrial Production Outlook
Manufacturing has slowed, but still growing
August 23, 2012
Manufacturing outlook moves lower
July 24, 2012
Manufacturing outlook dips
June 25, 2012
Manufacturing rebounds in April
May 22, 2012
Manufacturing takes a breather
April 20, 2012
Diesel Outlook
Diesel prices increase faster than expected
August 23, 2012
Diesel price outlook moves lower
July 23, 2012
Diesel price outlook lower for 2012
June 21, 2012
Little change in diesel price outlook
May 23, 2012
EIA sees near-term stability in diesel prices
May 9, 2012
Housing Starts
Housing starts up 7% in March
April 16, 2013
Housing permits up 4.6% in February
March 19, 2013
Housing starts down but still strong
February 20, 2013
Housing starts jump 12.1% in December
January 17, 2013
Housing indicators mixed in November
December 19, 2012
Business Inventories-to-Sales
Business inventories rise in January
March 13, 2013
Sales outpace inventories in November
January 15, 2013
Inventories-to-sales ratio holds steady
January 12, 2012
Inventories relative to sales are lean and steady
December 13, 2011
Inventories grow leaner relative to sales
November 17, 2011
Manufacturing Orders
Factory orders down in March
May 3, 2013
Durable goods orders fall 5.7%
April 24, 2013
Aircraft sector spurs jump in durable goods orders
March 26, 2013
Durable goods orders up 4.6%
January 28, 2013
Durable goods orders nearly flat in October
November 27, 2012
Retail Sales
Retail sales edge higher in April
May 13, 2013
Retail sales up in November
December 13, 2012
Retail sales dip in October
November 14, 2012
Retail sales dip from May
July 16, 2012
Retail sales nearly flat in April
May 15, 2012
ISM Manufacturing Index
ISM: Manufacturing growth slows in April
May 1, 2013
ISM: Manufacturing growth slows in March
April 1, 2013
ISM: Manufacturing sector strong in February
March 1, 2013
ISM index rises in January
February 1, 2013
ISM manufacturing index rises in December
January 2, 2013
Driver Labor Index
FTR Driver Labor Index drops again in August
September 13, 2012
FTR Driver Labor Index drops in July
August 8, 2012
FTR Driver Labor Index ticks up
July 9, 2012
FTR Driver Labor Index jumps
June 6, 2012
Driver Labor Index falls in April
May 8, 2012
Driver Shortage Outlook
Driver shortage to remain unchanged until 2013
September 13, 2012
Driver shortage rises slightly in Q2
August 15, 2012
Driver shortage staying moderately tight
July 16, 2012
Driver shortage outlook lowered
June 14, 2012
Driver shortage increasing again
May 11, 2012
Truck Labor Costs
Carriers’ labor costs set for strong gains
September 8, 2011
Carriers’ labor costs set for strong gains next three years
June 9, 2011
Carriers’ labor costs rose during 2010 after a flat 2009
March 17, 2011
Truck Transportation Payroll Employment
Trucking adds 11,700 jobs in April
May 3, 2013
Trucking sheds 6,900 jobs in March
April 5, 2013
Trucking adds 5,600 jobs in February
March 8, 2013
Trucking adds 5,000 jobs
February 1, 2013
Trucking adds 4,200 jobs in December
January 4, 2013
New Truck Order Activity
Preliminary truck orders down in September
October 4, 2012
Preliminary truck orders rebound in August
September 13, 2012
July truck orders weakest since 2010
August 23, 2012
Preliminary truck orders suffer large drop in July
August 2, 2012
Truck orders fall in June
July 23, 2012
New Truck Lead Time
New truck lead time ticks up in July
August 23, 2012
Manufacturers building too many trucks
July 23, 2012
New truck lead time falls in May
June 21, 2012
Truck lead times steady in April
May 23, 2012
Truck lead times shorten
April 24, 2012
Truck Utilization Outlook
Truck utilization stays near 95% in July
August 29, 2012
Truck utilization unchanged in June
July 26, 2012
Truck utilization steady in May
July 2, 2012
Truck utilization rises again in April
May 30, 2012
Truck utilization rises to start 2012
April 30, 2012
Equipment Costs
2011 equipment costs reduced, but still strong
September 8, 2011
Carriers’ equipment costs are surging this year
June 9, 2011
Carriers’ equipment costs are set for a strong rise
March 17, 2011
Intermodal Loadings Outlook
Intermodal loadings down 0.8% in July
September 13, 2012
Intermodal loadings up 0.2% in June
August 14, 2012
Intermodal loadings strong in May
July 9, 2012
Intermodal loadings growth below expectations
June 6, 2012
Intermodal market trudges along in March
May 7, 2012
Intermodal Rates Outlook
Intermodal rates slowed during 2011
June 12, 2012
Intermodal rates are staying strong
October 5, 2011
Intermodal rates accelerated during Q2
August 31, 2011
Intermodal rates have eased recently, but will stay strong
July 11, 2011
Intermodal rates remain strong, ready to surge
May 11, 2011
West Coast Port Activity
Port activity fell in July
September 5, 2012
Port activity up for 4th straight month
August 8, 2012
Port activity shows seasonal growth
July 9, 2012
Port activity strong in April
June 12, 2012
Port activity rebounded in March
May 7, 2012
Dry Van
Dry van loadings continue growth in July
September 27, 2012
Dry van loadings up in June, Q2 revised higher
July 25, 2012
Dry van loadings up 0.3% in May
July 5, 2012
Dry van loadings up 0.7% in April
May 31, 2012
Dry van loadings flat in March
May 3, 2012
Refrigerated
Refrigerated loadings rebound 0.6% in July
September 27, 2012
Refrigerated loadings drop 0.5% in June
July 25, 2012
Refrigerated loadings up 0.2% in May
July 5, 2012
Refrigerated loadings up in April but outlook reduced
May 31, 2012
Refrigerated loadings flat in Q1
May 3, 2012
Flatbed
Flatbed loadings surge 1.9% in July
September 27, 2012
Flatbed loadings up 0.4% in June
July 25, 2012
Flatbed loadings up 0.6% in May
July 5, 2012
Flatbed rebounded 1.7% in April
May 31, 2012
Flatbed loadings drop in March
May 3, 2012
Tank
Tank loadings drop 0.2% in July
September 27, 2012
Tank loadings jump 1.1% in June
July 25, 2012
Tank loadings unchanged in May
July 5, 2012
Tank loadings jump in April
June 4, 2012
Tank loadings dip in March
May 3, 2012
Bulk / Dump
Bulk/dump loadings jump 1.3% in July
September 27, 2012
Bulk/dump loadings down 0.6% in June
July 25, 2012
Bulk/dump loadings up 0.2% in May
July 5, 2012
Bulk/dump loadings up in April
June 4, 2012
Bulk/dump loadings drop sharply
May 3, 2012
Automotive loadings fall 2.7% in July
September 27, 2012
Bulk aggregates loadings up 1.1% in July
September 27, 2012
Construction loadings improve in July
September 27, 2012
Chemical loadings better than expected, still down
September 27, 2012
Food loadings up 0.5% in July
September 27, 2012
Dry Van
Dry van rates are easing but still strong
April 25, 2012
Dry van rates hit double-digit gains in Q2
September 1, 2011
Dry Van rates are improving, should be strong this fall
June 7, 2011
Refrigerated
Refrigerated rates remain relatively stable
May 3, 2012
Growth in refrigerated rates remains stable
September 1, 2011
Reefer rates are growing, outlook is slightly less robust
June 7, 2011
Flatbed
Flatbed rates stay strong to start 2012
April 25, 2012
Flatbed rates are staying strong
October 5, 2011
Flatbed rates continue to remain strong
July 18, 2011
Tank
Tank rates are down so far in 2011
September 8, 2011
Tank rates have been weak, finally growing
May 11, 2011
Bulk / Dump
Intermodal
Intermodal rates slowed during 2011
June 12, 2012
Intermodal rates are staying strong
October 5, 2011
Intermodal rates accelerated during Q2
August 31, 2011
Intermodal rates have eased recently, but will stay strong
July 11, 2011
Intermodal rates remain strong, ready to surge
May 11, 2011
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