Larry Gross
Oct 07
What’s Driving Intermodal?
Domestic Intermodal performance has been outpacing truckload throughout the recovery. What’s the underlying force driving the train? It is not, at its core, issues such as fuel price, congestion or motor carrier capacity. To be sure, these factors have an influence, but they are not the key.
Trade-offs
Intermodal has always offered a price advantage over truck, at least in those lanes where intermodal made sense. The problem was that in the “bad old days” in order to get those savings shippers had to be willing to make considerable trade-offs in terms of service reliability, loss and damage, and ease of doing business. If you shipped intermodal, you never know when the load would actually show up at the receiver and what shape it would be in when it got there. And if you had a claim, you generally had a tough time collecting because each of the players in the intermodal move would say “not my problem”. As a result, despite considerable opportunities for savings, intermodal generally was the “mode of last resort”, to be used when other capacity wasn’t available, and only on non-critical moves of hard-to-damage lading.
Improvements
Today, the relative savings of intermodal vs. truck has not appreciably changed from those days. If anything, the rate differential has narrowed. What has changed dramatically is the quality of the intermodal service product. Intermodal is still generally slower than truck. But with the entry of sophisticated intermodal service providers that control and take responsibility for all aspects of the door-to-door intermodal move, the consistency and reliability of intermodal is approaching truck-like levels. Articulated equipment and sophisticated lift devices have eliminated the need for special blocking and bracing and brought cargo damage down close to that of truck. And substantial railroad investment has eliminated many service bottlenecks and enhanced the speed and reliability of intermodal.
In short, it’s not the economics that have changed, it’s the service. The intermodal service offering has achieved sufficient quality so as to provide an attractive price/service offering to the shipper. Shippers are beginning to respond and intermodal is moving from a transport afterthought to a core transport option. Now, the next step is beginning to unfold, with supply-chain strategies beginning to change to take advantage of what intermodal has to offer. For instance, a shipper might choose a DC location adjacent to an intermodal terminal rather than an Interstate highway interchange. As these changes roll through the system, intermodal economics will improve and the intermodal momentum will continue.
Recent Indicators
Trucking Conditions Index
Trucking Conditions Index rises
May 1, 2012
Trucking Conditions Index flat
April 2, 2012
Trucking Conditions Index declines
March 1, 2012
Trucking Conditions Index higher
February 1, 2012
Trucking Conditions Index outlook updated due to HOS
January 9, 2012
Truck Loadings Outlook
Truck loadings disappoint in March
April 25, 2012
Truck loadings up, outlook modest
March 29, 2012
Truck loadings fell in January
February 24, 2012
Truck loadings surge in December
January 24, 2012
Truck loadings ticked up in November, outlook up for 2012
December 22, 2011
Loadings By Segment
Bulk/dump loadings drop sharply
May 3, 2012
Tank loadings dip in March
May 3, 2012
Dry van loadings flat in March
May 3, 2012
Flatbed loadings drop in March
May 3, 2012
Refrigerated loadings flat in Q1
May 3, 2012
Loadings By Commodity
Automotive loadings surged in Q1
May 8, 2012
Chemical loadings stable in early 2012 after a weak 2011
May 8, 2012
Bulk Aggregates down sharply in Q1
May 8, 2012
Construction loadings drop 1.7% in March
May 8, 2012
Food loadings down 0.3% in March
May 8, 2012
Trucking Conditions Index
Trucking Conditions Index rises
May 1, 2012
Trucking Conditions Index flat
April 2, 2012
Trucking Conditions Index declines
March 1, 2012
Trucking Conditions Index higher
February 1, 2012
Trucking Conditions Index outlook updated due to HOS
January 9, 2012
Truckload Rates Outlook
TL rates stronger to start 2012
April 12, 2012
Truckload rates strong at 2011′s end
March 9, 2012
Truckload rates growth below 5%
February 14, 2012
TL rates growing above 5%, outlook lower
January 9, 2012
Truckload rates showing consistency as 2011 end
December 28, 2011
Rates By Segment
Diesel price drops to barely $4
May 14, 2012
EIA sees near-term stability in diesel prices
May 9, 2012
Diesel prices fall 1.6 cents nationwide
May 7, 2012
Refrigerated rates remain relatively stable
May 3, 2012
Trucking Conditions Index rises
May 1, 2012
Truckload Costs Outlook
Carrier cost growth set to exceed 5% in 2012
March 13, 2012
Carrier costs grow 10% in 2011
February 22, 2012
Carriers’ margins will continue to grow despite headwinds
November 11, 2011
Carrier costs outlook unchanged, but there is uncertainty
November 11, 2011
Carriers fuel costs high, but easing
October 6, 2011
Diesel Outlook
EIA sees near-term stability in diesel prices
May 9, 2012
Diesel price outlook moves lower
April 24, 2012
Diesel price outlook higher
March 29, 2012
Diesel price outlook higher
February 24, 2012
Diesel price outlook rises
January 23, 2012
Weekly On-Highway Diesel Price
Diesel price drops to barely $4
May 14, 2012
Diesel prices fall 1.6 cents nationwide
May 7, 2012
National diesel price dips 1.2 cents to $4.073
April 30, 2012
Diesel drops for second straight week
April 23, 2012
Diesel dips for second time in 12 weeks
April 16, 2012
Trucking Conditions Index
Trucking Conditions Index rises
May 1, 2012
Trucking Conditions Index flat
April 2, 2012
Trucking Conditions Index declines
March 1, 2012
Trucking Conditions Index higher
February 1, 2012
Trucking Conditions Index outlook updated due to HOS
January 9, 2012
Truck Utilization Outlook
Truck utilization rises to start 2012
April 30, 2012
Truck utilization modestly tight
April 9, 2012
Truck utilization lower, still tight
March 1, 2012
Truck utilization stable in December
January 30, 2012
Truck capacity above 95%, 2012 outlook eases
January 9, 2012
New Truck Order Activity
Preliminary truck orders down in April
May 3, 2012
Truck orders fall again in March
April 24, 2012
Preliminary truck orders drop below 20k in March
April 3, 2012
Truck orders drop in February
March 23, 2012
Preliminary truck orders fall again
March 6, 2012
Trucking Failures
Trucking failures remain very low
May 9, 2012
Avondale: Fleet failures up slightly
February 2, 2012
Avondale reports record low fleet failures in 2011Q3
November 1, 2011
Avondale reports only 240 fleets failed in 2011Q2
July 29, 2011
Avondale reports only 295 fleets failed in 2011Q1
May 16, 2011
Truck Transportation Payroll Employment
Job growth weak in U.S., trucking
May 4, 2012
Trucking cuts jobs in March
April 6, 2012
Trucking adds 10,200 jobs
March 9, 2012
Trucking adds jobs in January
February 3, 2012
Trucking employment up 3.2% in 2011
January 6, 2012
Trucking Conditions Index
Trucking Conditions Index rises
May 1, 2012
Trucking Conditions Index flat
April 2, 2012
Trucking Conditions Index declines
March 1, 2012
Trucking Conditions Index higher
February 1, 2012
Trucking Conditions Index outlook updated due to HOS
January 9, 2012
GDP Outlook
GDP forecast relatively unchanged
May 18, 2012
U.S. economy is muddling along
April 20, 2012
GDP forecast modest for 2012
March 23, 2012
GDP forecast is modest
February 15, 2012
GDP outlook relatively unchanged
January 19, 2012
Industrial Production Outlook
Manufacturing takes a breather
April 20, 2012
Manufacturing outlook strong
March 28, 2012
Manufacturing starts 2012 strongly
February 21, 2012
Industrial sector going strong
January 23, 2012
Manufacturing outlook still strong for 2012
December 20, 2011
Diesel Outlook
EIA sees near-term stability in diesel prices
May 9, 2012
Diesel price outlook moves lower
April 24, 2012
Diesel price outlook higher
March 29, 2012
Diesel price outlook higher
February 24, 2012
Diesel price outlook rises
January 23, 2012
Housing Starts
Housing numbers mixed in April
May 16, 2012
Housing starts down, permits up
April 17, 2012
Housing permits jump 5.1%
March 20, 2012
Housing starts, permits soar in November
December 20, 2011
Housing permits rise sharply in October
November 17, 2011
Business Inventories-to-Sales
Inventories-to-sales ratio holds steady
January 12, 2012
Inventories relative to sales are lean and steady
December 13, 2011
Inventories grow leaner relative to sales
November 17, 2011
Inventories-to-sales ratio holds steady in August
October 14, 2011
Inventories leaner relative to sales in July
September 15, 2011
Manufacturing Orders
Durable goods orders drop sharply
April 25, 2012
Factory orders up 1.3% in February
April 3, 2012
Durable goods orders up 2.2%
March 28, 2012
Factory orders drop 1% in January
March 5, 2012
Durable goods orders down in January
February 28, 2012
Retail Sales
Retail sales nearly flat in April
May 15, 2012
Retail sales up 0.8%
April 16, 2012
Retail sales up 1.1% in February
March 13, 2012
Retail sales rise in January
February 14, 2012
Retail sales up 7.7% in 2011
January 12, 2012
ISM Manufacturing Index
Manufacturing improves in March
April 2, 2012
Manufacturing growth slows
March 1, 2012
ISM: Manufacturing stronger
February 1, 2012
Manufacturing index rises in December
January 3, 2012
Manufacturing indexes post strong growth in November
December 1, 2011
Driver Labor Index
Driver Labor Index falls in April
May 8, 2012
FTR Driver Labor Index dips 0.1%
April 11, 2012
FTR Driver Labor Index up 0.4%
March 13, 2012
FTR Driver Labor Index rises
February 7, 2012
FTR Driver Labor Index down 0.1% in December
January 11, 2012
Driver Shortage Outlook
Driver shortage increasing again
May 11, 2012
Driver shortage growing in 2012
April 11, 2012
Driver shortage estimate lowered
March 19, 2012
Driver shortage above 200,000
February 10, 2012
Driver shortage higher than first thought
January 11, 2012
Truck Labor Costs
Carriers’ labor costs set for strong gains
September 8, 2011
Carriers’ labor costs set for strong gains next three years
June 9, 2011
Carriers’ labor costs rose during 2010 after a flat 2009
March 17, 2011
Truck Transportation Payroll Employment
Job growth weak in U.S., trucking
May 4, 2012
Trucking cuts jobs in March
April 6, 2012
Trucking adds 10,200 jobs
March 9, 2012
Trucking adds jobs in January
February 3, 2012
Trucking employment up 3.2% in 2011
January 6, 2012
New Truck Order Activity
Preliminary truck orders down in April
May 3, 2012
Truck orders fall again in March
April 24, 2012
Preliminary truck orders drop below 20k in March
April 3, 2012
Truck orders drop in February
March 23, 2012
Preliminary truck orders fall again
March 6, 2012
New Truck Lead Time
Truck lead times shorten
April 24, 2012
New truck lead time below 5 months
March 23, 2012
Truck lead time at 5 months
February 22, 2012
New truck lead time edges above 5 months
January 23, 2012
New truck lead time remained below 5 months in November
December 20, 2011
Truck Utilization Outlook
Truck utilization rises to start 2012
April 30, 2012
Truck utilization modestly tight
April 9, 2012
Truck utilization lower, still tight
March 1, 2012
Truck utilization stable in December
January 30, 2012
Truck capacity above 95%, 2012 outlook eases
January 9, 2012
Equipment Costs
2011 equipment costs reduced, but still strong
September 8, 2011
Carriers’ equipment costs are surging this year
June 9, 2011
Carriers’ equipment costs are set for a strong rise
March 17, 2011
Intermodal Loadings Outlook
Intermodal market trudges along in March
May 7, 2012
Intermodal loads rose 0.4% in February
April 3, 2012
Intermodal loadings decline
March 6, 2012
Intermodal loads gain in December
February 2, 2012
Intermodal loads continue gains in November
December 22, 2011
Intermodal Rates Outlook
Intermodal rates are staying strong
October 5, 2011
Intermodal rates accelerated during Q2
August 31, 2011
Intermodal rates have eased recently, but will stay strong
July 11, 2011
Intermodal rates remain strong, ready to surge
May 11, 2011
Intermodal rates poised for strong increases
April 7, 2011
West Coast Port Activity
Port activity rebounded in March
May 7, 2012
Port activity slumps in February
April 9, 2012
Port activity dips in January
March 6, 2012
Adjusted port activity improves
February 6, 2012
Port activity still down in November
January 11, 2012
Dry Van
Dry van loadings flat in March
May 3, 2012
Dry van loadings up 0.4%
March 30, 2012
Dry van loadings tick higher in January
March 1, 2012
Dry Van loadings jumped in December
January 26, 2012
Dry Van loadings improve in November, up versus 2010
December 29, 2011
Refrigerated
Refrigerated loadings flat in Q1
May 3, 2012
Reefer loadings up, outlook lower
April 5, 2012
Refrigerated loadings rise in January
March 1, 2012
Refrigerated loadings end 2011 with big gain
January 26, 2012
Refrigerated loadings just above 2010, outlook still weak
December 29, 2011
Flatbed
Flatbed loadings drop in March
May 3, 2012
Flatbed up 0.7% in February
March 30, 2012
Flatbed loadings up again in January
March 1, 2012
Flatbed up modestly in December
January 27, 2012
Flatbed up in November, new peak in sight
December 22, 2011
Tank
Tank loadings dip in March
May 3, 2012
Tank loadings weak, outlook lower
April 6, 2012
Tank loadings down in January
March 1, 2012
Tank loadings weakened in Q4
January 27, 2012
Tank loadings unchanged in November, 2012 outlook stays weak
December 22, 2011
Bulk / Dump
Bulk/dump loadings drop sharply
May 3, 2012
Bulk/dump loadings hold steady
April 6, 2012
Bulk/dump loadings drop in January
March 1, 2012
Bulk/Dump loadings were huge in December
January 27, 2012
Bulk/Dump loadings continued to grow in November
December 22, 2011
Automotive loadings surged in Q1
May 8, 2012
Chemical loadings stable in early 2012 after a weak 2011
May 8, 2012
Bulk Aggregates down sharply in Q1
May 8, 2012
Construction loadings drop 1.7% in March
May 8, 2012
Food loadings down 0.3% in March
May 8, 2012
Dry Van
Dry van rates are easing but still strong
April 25, 2012
Dry van rates hit double-digit gains in Q2
September 1, 2011
Dry Van rates are improving, should be strong this fall
June 7, 2011
Refrigerated
Refrigerated rates remain relatively stable
May 3, 2012
Growth in refrigerated rates remains stable
September 1, 2011
Reefer rates are growing, outlook is slightly less robust
June 7, 2011
Flatbed
Flatbed rates stay strong to start 2012
April 25, 2012
Flatbed rates are staying strong
October 5, 2011
Flatbed rates continue to remain strong
July 18, 2011
Tank
Tank rates are down so far in 2011
September 8, 2011
Tank rates have been weak, finally growing
May 11, 2011
Bulk / Dump
Intermodal
Intermodal rates are staying strong
October 5, 2011
Intermodal rates accelerated during Q2
August 31, 2011
Intermodal rates have eased recently, but will stay strong
July 11, 2011
Intermodal rates remain strong, ready to surge
May 11, 2011
Intermodal rates poised for strong increases
April 7, 2011
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