Quick Update on HOS
FTR’s first cut analysis of the FMCSA’s final rule for Hours Of Service (HOS) changes has two important changes from what industry observers had earlier predicted.
- First, the work day will now be shortened by only one half hour due to the new requirement for a work break. That is at least one half hour less than was originally assumed.
- Second, the implementation date for the important changes has been pushed out to July of 2013, 9 months later than expected.
Note that the FMCSA has adopted the requirement that the weekly reset period include two night time sleep periods, effectively reducing the max work week from 82 to 70 hours. The two major changes will, after factoring in the probability of hitting hours limits, reduce the productivity penalty from over 5%, as originally assumed, to just over 3%.
These changes mean a reduction in the peak 2012 driver shortage by 60,000 drivers, keeping the industry out of the critical shortage zone. The peak shortage will now occur in 2013 at over 315,000 drivers – about 20,000 less than originally forecast. However, any shortage above 300,000 drivers still puts the industry in the critical shortage zone, when supply chain failures are possible.
Stay tuned after the New Year for a full synopsis of the changes and their likely impact on the truck markets. Until then have a wonderful holiday!