FTR Driver Labor Index down 0.1% in December

January 11, 2012

Employment continued its slow growth in December with modest employment gains and another 0.1% reduction in the unemployment rate. The FTR Driver Labor Index fell 0.1% from November to December to 124.76. The index was down 0.2% versus one year ago. We are likely to start seeing some mildly positive year-over-year figures once we get into 2012.

Index decline
Employment data revisions to prior months has pulled the index lower starting in October. We have now had 11 straight months of year-over-year declines. 2012 should see an uptick as we are comparing to the weak numbers of early 2011. Freight growth has been consistent and positive throughout 2011. Yet, it is below the growth seen in 2010.

U.S. employment situation
December employment showed a gain of 200k, the fourth best month of 2011. Participation in the labor force continues to remain weak, helping with the unemployment rate. Look for that to change in 2012.

One big positive was that all of the key segments grew in December, even construction – up 17k. Manufacturing also rebounded strongly after being relatively flat for the last 4 months. Trucking continued its slow acceleration, adding 5k jobs. The seasonal pickup in transportation employment was quite strong, adding 50k.

NOTE:
A rising index indicates that the potential driver pool has increased. A falling index indicates that the potential pool has shrunk. This is a measure of labor participants who are likely candidates to consider trucking or already are. It does not account for tougher driver restrictions that have come into play through CSA.

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