Truckload rates strong at 2011′s end
March 9, 2012
Truckload pricing came in slightly above expectations to end 2011. December saw a year-over-year gain of 5.3%. Year-over-year growth has been above 5% for 13 of the last 14 months. Truck pricing had a slight deceleration during the fourth quarter of 2011, but still tracked near the 5% growth rate that we have been at or above since late 2010.
The fuel price situation will determine whether 2012 is a year of dramatic or merely substantial price increases. Before fuel, rates will come in above 6%, more than twice the rate of inflation. This could be higher if the economy accelerates. The recent diesel price increases will bring the first quarter run rate over 10% for full prices. Our current forecast assumes some moderation in political pressure and only modest further increases, with diesel prices maxing out near $4.20/gal and then falling back towards $4.
Outlook remains strong
After dropping 10.9% in 2009, industry rates (excluding fuel surcharges) rose 4.4% in 2010. The rebound continued in 2011 with growth of 5.8%. Rate growth will stay strong through 2014 – barring an economic downturn. We anticipate seeing growth of 5.9% in 2012 (up slightly from 5.5% in our prior forecast), followed by a strong 7.3% in 2013 (previously 8.1%) and further acceleration to 8.6% in 2014. The strength in 2013/2014 is due to the inclusion of the HOS rules. That will help move pricing higher until at least mid-2014. The lowering of our driver shortage estimates led to the easing of the 2013 rate growth.
Continued freight acceleration over 2011 will push prices up moderately. There is an increasing possibility of strong upside pressure from fuel prices. Pressure on most cost elements will keep rate increases above inflation in 2012. The prime exposure is upward from fuel “politics.”
If you add in the fuel component, we saw rates drop 17.8% in 2009 and then rebound 7.5% in 2010. The spike in fuel costs in early 2011 pushed rates higher, up 10.2%. The recent fuel price gains have moved our forecast for 2012 higher. We are now at 6.1% in 2012, 6.5% in 2013 and 8.2% in 2014.
Analysis
The current capacity utilization level is enough to sustain well-above-inflation rate increases. Pressure will increase substantially in 2013, when HOS regulations change. Note that political troubles in the Middle East will cause short-run spikes in prices with fuel. One such spike is occurring right now.
Excepting early 2011, fuel prices and freight growth have not moved together during this upturn. As one slows, the other accelerates. This is, so far, in contrast to the situation during the last upturn when freight growth, fuel pricing, and regulatory drag all moved upward together in 2004 and 2005.
NOTE:
Our truckload rates data is based on publically-available data from security analysts and trade organizations. We then forecast the cost and margin elements, factoring in inflation and industry conditions. The figures are for rate-per-loaded-mile (less fuel surcharge), seasonally adjusted and are indexed to 2003Q1.
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Upgrade to a Premium MemberRecent Indicators
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Tank loadings drop 0.2% in July
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Loadings By Commodity
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Food loadings up 0.5% in July
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Trucking Conditions Index moves higher in August
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August 31, 2012
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May 13, 2013
Diesel price dips slightly to $3.845
May 6, 2013
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Diesel Outlook
Diesel prices increase faster than expected
August 23, 2012
Diesel price outlook moves lower
July 23, 2012
Diesel price outlook lower for 2012
June 21, 2012
Little change in diesel price outlook
May 23, 2012
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Weekly On-Highway Diesel Price
Diesel price rises in DOE’s 1,000th week of data
May 13, 2013
Diesel price dips slightly to $3.845
May 6, 2013
Diesel price falls 3.6 cents to $3.851
April 30, 2013
Diesel price lowest since August
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Diesel price drops 3.5 cents to $3.942
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Trucking Conditions Index
Trucking Conditions Index rises sharply
January 9, 2013
Conditions index dips after big improvement
December 14, 2012
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August 31, 2012
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July 31, 2012
Truck Utilization Outlook
Truck utilization stays near 95% in July
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Truck utilization unchanged in June
July 26, 2012
Truck utilization steady in May
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Truck utilization rises again in April
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Preliminary truck orders down in September
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Truck Transportation Payroll Employment
Trucking adds 11,700 jobs in April
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Trucking Conditions Index rises sharply
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Conditions index dips after big improvement
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Trucking Conditions Index moves higher in August
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August 31, 2012
Trucking Conditions Index drops
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GDP Outlook
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GDP forecast moves lower
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GDP forecast risks are rising
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GDP forecast relatively unchanged
May 18, 2012
U.S. economy is muddling along
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Industrial Production Outlook
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August 23, 2012
Manufacturing outlook moves lower
July 24, 2012
Manufacturing outlook dips
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Manufacturing rebounds in April
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Manufacturing takes a breather
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Diesel Outlook
Diesel prices increase faster than expected
August 23, 2012
Diesel price outlook moves lower
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June 21, 2012
Little change in diesel price outlook
May 23, 2012
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Housing starts up 7% in March
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Housing permits up 4.6% in February
March 19, 2013
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Housing starts jump 12.1% in December
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Housing indicators mixed in November
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Business Inventories-to-Sales
Business inventories rise in January
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Sales outpace inventories in November
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Inventories-to-sales ratio holds steady
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Inventories relative to sales are lean and steady
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Inventories grow leaner relative to sales
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Manufacturing Orders
Factory orders down in March
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Durable goods orders fall 5.7%
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Durable goods orders up 4.6%
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Retail Sales
Retail sales edge higher in April
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Retail sales up in November
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Retail sales dip in October
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Retail sales nearly flat in April
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ISM Manufacturing Index
ISM: Manufacturing growth slows in April
May 1, 2013
ISM: Manufacturing growth slows in March
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ISM: Manufacturing sector strong in February
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ISM index rises in January
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ISM manufacturing index rises in December
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Driver Labor Index
FTR Driver Labor Index drops again in August
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FTR Driver Labor Index drops in July
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FTR Driver Labor Index ticks up
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FTR Driver Labor Index jumps
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Driver Shortage Outlook
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Driver shortage rises slightly in Q2
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Driver shortage staying moderately tight
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Driver shortage outlook lowered
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Truck Transportation Payroll Employment
Trucking adds 11,700 jobs in April
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Trucking sheds 6,900 jobs in March
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Trucking adds 5,600 jobs in February
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New Truck Order Activity
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Preliminary truck orders rebound in August
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July truck orders weakest since 2010
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New Truck Lead Time
New truck lead time ticks up in July
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New truck lead time falls in May
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Truck lead times steady in April
May 23, 2012
Truck lead times shorten
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Truck Utilization Outlook
Truck utilization stays near 95% in July
August 29, 2012
Truck utilization unchanged in June
July 26, 2012
Truck utilization steady in May
July 2, 2012
Truck utilization rises again in April
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Intermodal Loadings Outlook
Intermodal loadings down 0.8% in July
September 13, 2012
Intermodal loadings up 0.2% in June
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Intermodal loadings strong in May
July 9, 2012
Intermodal loadings growth below expectations
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Intermodal market trudges along in March
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Intermodal Rates Outlook
Intermodal rates slowed during 2011
June 12, 2012
Intermodal rates are staying strong
October 5, 2011
Intermodal rates accelerated during Q2
August 31, 2011
Intermodal rates have eased recently, but will stay strong
July 11, 2011
Intermodal rates remain strong, ready to surge
May 11, 2011
West Coast Port Activity
Port activity fell in July
September 5, 2012
Port activity up for 4th straight month
August 8, 2012
Port activity shows seasonal growth
July 9, 2012
Port activity strong in April
June 12, 2012
Port activity rebounded in March
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Dry Van
Dry van loadings continue growth in July
September 27, 2012
Dry van loadings up in June, Q2 revised higher
July 25, 2012
Dry van loadings up 0.3% in May
July 5, 2012
Dry van loadings up 0.7% in April
May 31, 2012
Dry van loadings flat in March
May 3, 2012
Refrigerated
Refrigerated loadings rebound 0.6% in July
September 27, 2012
Refrigerated loadings drop 0.5% in June
July 25, 2012
Refrigerated loadings up 0.2% in May
July 5, 2012
Refrigerated loadings up in April but outlook reduced
May 31, 2012
Refrigerated loadings flat in Q1
May 3, 2012
Flatbed
Flatbed loadings surge 1.9% in July
September 27, 2012
Flatbed loadings up 0.4% in June
July 25, 2012
Flatbed loadings up 0.6% in May
July 5, 2012
Flatbed rebounded 1.7% in April
May 31, 2012
Flatbed loadings drop in March
May 3, 2012
Tank
Tank loadings drop 0.2% in July
September 27, 2012
Tank loadings jump 1.1% in June
July 25, 2012
Tank loadings unchanged in May
July 5, 2012
Tank loadings jump in April
June 4, 2012
Tank loadings dip in March
May 3, 2012
Bulk / Dump
Bulk/dump loadings jump 1.3% in July
September 27, 2012
Bulk/dump loadings down 0.6% in June
July 25, 2012
Bulk/dump loadings up 0.2% in May
July 5, 2012
Bulk/dump loadings up in April
June 4, 2012
Bulk/dump loadings drop sharply
May 3, 2012
Automotive loadings fall 2.7% in July
September 27, 2012
Bulk aggregates loadings up 1.1% in July
September 27, 2012
Construction loadings improve in July
September 27, 2012
Chemical loadings better than expected, still down
September 27, 2012
Food loadings up 0.5% in July
September 27, 2012
Dry Van
Dry van rates are easing but still strong
April 25, 2012
Dry van rates hit double-digit gains in Q2
September 1, 2011
Dry Van rates are improving, should be strong this fall
June 7, 2011
Refrigerated
Refrigerated rates remain relatively stable
May 3, 2012
Growth in refrigerated rates remains stable
September 1, 2011
Reefer rates are growing, outlook is slightly less robust
June 7, 2011
Flatbed
Flatbed rates stay strong to start 2012
April 25, 2012
Flatbed rates are staying strong
October 5, 2011
Flatbed rates continue to remain strong
July 18, 2011
Tank
Tank rates are down so far in 2011
September 8, 2011
Tank rates have been weak, finally growing
May 11, 2011
Bulk / Dump
Intermodal
Intermodal rates slowed during 2011
June 12, 2012
Intermodal rates are staying strong
October 5, 2011
Intermodal rates accelerated during Q2
August 31, 2011
Intermodal rates have eased recently, but will stay strong
July 11, 2011
Intermodal rates remain strong, ready to surge
May 11, 2011
