Refrigerated rates remain relatively stable
May 3, 2012
After showing solid year-over-year gains of between 6% and 8%, pricing in the refrigerated market slowed at the end of 2011 and start of 2012. From November to January growth averaged ~4%. We expect that the weakness in rates has bottomed in the near-term and should still show solid rate growth going forward.
Refrigerated rates were less negative during the downturn, but were also one of the last segments to turn positive. We expect that pricing moved higher during the rest of Q1, although it may come in slightly less than our forecast. Nonetheless, rates are not taking the dip that we have seen in the Dry Van market.
Refrigerated rates fell 9.0% in 2009 and only rebounded 0.7% in 2010. Pricing took off in 2011 and rose 6.6%. We are expecting to see growth near that level for the next 2 years before we get an uptick starting in late 2013 from the addition of HOS regulations. We have growth in 2014 pegged at 8.6%.
Our truckload rates data is based on publically-available data from security analysts and trade organizations. We then forecast the cost and margin elements, factoring in inflation and industry conditions. The figures are for rate-per-loaded-mile (less fuel surcharge), seasonally adjusted and are indexed to 2003Q1.
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