Diesel price outlook moves lower
July 23, 2012
Media commentators went from calling for $5 pump prices in the near future to the possibility of seeing $3 before the end of the year. Of course, they are wrong on both fronts. Supply and demand indicators continue to indicate that we are near equilibrium with sluggish economic growth helping keep us in a mild oversupply situation. Once the Iranian fears were removed, oil prices quickly adjusted.
If economic growth is able to stay afloat, then oil prices will slowly rebound back towards the $100 mark – our best approximation for near-term equilibrium pricing. The supply and demand fundamentals are not indicating that a prolonged downshift in prices should continue to occur. Global economic worries are obviously impacting the current environment. In time those worries will either be realized or reduced. Our inclination is to go with the latter – but that has waned some of late. That leads to a return of modestly higher prices – not getting back to average pump prices above $4 until well into 2013.
Diesel prices in June fell 5.5% compared to May and were down 4.4% versus the prior year. They stood at $3.76 in June, down from $3.98 in May and $3.93 a year ago.
Outlook
Weak economic growth and modest stability in key oil states has lowered our near-term diesel expectations. We don’t expect to see too much up or down movement over the next few months. We then expect to see pricing pressures move slowly back upwards during the rest of 2012 and get back to the $4+ mark during early 2013. That keeps year-over-year gains relatively flat for the balance of 2012 and for the first half of 2013. Global economic and political shocks will always keep the oil markets volatile but the overall supply and demand fundamentals point to diesel prices near the $4 mark in 2013.
Be Prepared
The scout’s motto holds ever true in effectively managing fuel costs. Pump prices have the knack of being quite volatile: whether it’s because of weather or crude oil prices or supply concerns or one of a hundred other reasons. Remember: fuel costs can quickly change. Be prepared.
About Our Fuel Outlook:
We are not fuel experts. Nor do we desire to be. But, fuel is first or second in your costs categories. You have to be prepared for swings in this category. Use these numbers as a rational basis for understanding where fuel costs are headed; knowing that even relatively little problems can create quite large (short-term) fluctuations in the oil markets.
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Upgrade to a Premium MemberRecent Indicators
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August 31, 2012
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July 16, 2012
TL rates slowed during Q1
June 19, 2012
TL rates stronger to start 2012
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Diesel prices increase faster than expected
August 23, 2012
Diesel price outlook moves lower
July 23, 2012
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May 20, 2013
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August 31, 2012
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July 31, 2012
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GDP forecast risks are rising
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GDP forecast relatively unchanged
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Industrial Production Outlook
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Manufacturing rebounds in April
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Diesel Outlook
Diesel prices increase faster than expected
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Diesel price outlook moves lower
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EIA sees near-term stability in diesel prices
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Housing permits up 4.6% in February
March 19, 2013
Housing starts down but still strong
February 20, 2013
Housing starts jump 12.1% in December
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Housing indicators mixed in November
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Business Inventories-to-Sales
Business inventories rise in January
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Sales outpace inventories in November
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Manufacturing Orders
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Durable goods orders fall 5.7%
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Aircraft sector spurs jump in durable goods orders
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Durable goods orders up 4.6%
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Retail sales edge higher in April
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Retail sales up in November
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Retail sales nearly flat in April
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ISM Manufacturing Index
ISM: Manufacturing growth slows in April
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ISM: Manufacturing growth slows in March
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ISM: Manufacturing sector strong in February
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ISM index rises in January
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ISM manufacturing index rises in December
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Driver Labor Index
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FTR Driver Labor Index drops in July
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FTR Driver Labor Index ticks up
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FTR Driver Labor Index jumps
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Driver shortage rises slightly in Q2
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Driver shortage staying moderately tight
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Truck Transportation Payroll Employment
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Truck lead times steady in April
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Truck lead times shorten
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Truck Utilization Outlook
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Truck utilization unchanged in June
July 26, 2012
Truck utilization steady in May
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Truck utilization rises again in April
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Intermodal loadings up 0.2% in June
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Intermodal loadings strong in May
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June 12, 2012
Intermodal rates are staying strong
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July 11, 2011
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September 5, 2012
Port activity up for 4th straight month
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July 9, 2012
Port activity strong in April
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Dry Van
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September 27, 2012
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July 25, 2012
Dry van loadings up 0.3% in May
July 5, 2012
Dry van loadings up 0.7% in April
May 31, 2012
Dry van loadings flat in March
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Refrigerated
Refrigerated loadings rebound 0.6% in July
September 27, 2012
Refrigerated loadings drop 0.5% in June
July 25, 2012
Refrigerated loadings up 0.2% in May
July 5, 2012
Refrigerated loadings up in April but outlook reduced
May 31, 2012
Refrigerated loadings flat in Q1
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Flatbed
Flatbed loadings surge 1.9% in July
September 27, 2012
Flatbed loadings up 0.4% in June
July 25, 2012
Flatbed loadings up 0.6% in May
July 5, 2012
Flatbed rebounded 1.7% in April
May 31, 2012
Flatbed loadings drop in March
May 3, 2012
Tank
Tank loadings drop 0.2% in July
September 27, 2012
Tank loadings jump 1.1% in June
July 25, 2012
Tank loadings unchanged in May
July 5, 2012
Tank loadings jump in April
June 4, 2012
Tank loadings dip in March
May 3, 2012
Bulk / Dump
Bulk/dump loadings jump 1.3% in July
September 27, 2012
Bulk/dump loadings down 0.6% in June
July 25, 2012
Bulk/dump loadings up 0.2% in May
July 5, 2012
Bulk/dump loadings up in April
June 4, 2012
Bulk/dump loadings drop sharply
May 3, 2012
Automotive loadings fall 2.7% in July
September 27, 2012
Bulk aggregates loadings up 1.1% in July
September 27, 2012
Construction loadings improve in July
September 27, 2012
Chemical loadings better than expected, still down
September 27, 2012
Food loadings up 0.5% in July
September 27, 2012
Dry Van
Dry van rates are easing but still strong
April 25, 2012
Dry van rates hit double-digit gains in Q2
September 1, 2011
Dry Van rates are improving, should be strong this fall
June 7, 2011
Refrigerated
Refrigerated rates remain relatively stable
May 3, 2012
Growth in refrigerated rates remains stable
September 1, 2011
Reefer rates are growing, outlook is slightly less robust
June 7, 2011
Flatbed
Flatbed rates stay strong to start 2012
April 25, 2012
Flatbed rates are staying strong
October 5, 2011
Flatbed rates continue to remain strong
July 18, 2011
Tank
Tank rates are down so far in 2011
September 8, 2011
Tank rates have been weak, finally growing
May 11, 2011
Bulk / Dump
Intermodal
Intermodal rates slowed during 2011
June 12, 2012
Intermodal rates are staying strong
October 5, 2011
Intermodal rates accelerated during Q2
August 31, 2011
Intermodal rates have eased recently, but will stay strong
July 11, 2011
Intermodal rates remain strong, ready to surge
May 11, 2011
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